Eventually maiotaku odwiedzajÄ…cych we thought a choice condition where in fact the chief end in of thyroid disease isn’t additional rays but alternatively the fresh intake from 131 We in the thyroid. The amount of 131 I is specially highest for the Iwaki compared towards sky-amount price. We notice right here that the heavens dosages were negligible efforts of 131 We during the time of proportions inside .
The outcome of our analysis get when you look at the Fig. 5, where in actuality the thyroid gland cancers instances stated about FSS try plotted because the a purpose of the amount of radioactivity of 131 We. In cases like this, we come across a confident correlation between the two quantity. We perform an effective Poisson regression data in the same manner once the when it comes to the atmosphere-dose rates, we have
for the 95% believe period (?0.78, seven.27) for a good and (, ) to have b. The fresh dosage dependence is brief, additionally the disease incidence was dominated by constant name. Brand new hill try dos.thirty five although mountain away from zero is roofed on 95% trust period to possess a great. It is essential to grab full account for the effect since this has been generally believed that, as with Chernobyl, the consumption of 131 I would feel mainly responsible for the latest possible a lot of risk of thyroid cancers in the Fukushima. The brand new inability so you’re able to choose a mathematically tall correlation anywhere between thyroid gland cancers and you may 131 We within our studies can be considering the fact that Japanese anybody usually need a large amount of steady iodine regarding seaweed, a nourishment pattern which is known to slow down the intake from 131 I significantly. But not, it is still important to make better quotes away from thyroid gland doses for folks, and that depend mainly with the metropolitan areas of children throughout and you may quickly after the Fukushima accident as a result of the quick life of 131 I.
The fresh thyroid cancer case for each and every ten 5 children noticed in brand new FSS given that a function of the degree of radioactivity regarding 131 We for the half dozen areas. I let you know a straight-line obtained by the a good Poisson regression investigation: N = dos.35x + with the 95% rely on period (?0.78, eight.27) getting a and you will (, ) having b.
Statistical data according to the information off 59 municipalities
A question stays about regardless of if our very own studies of the relationship within amounts of environment radiation and you may radioactivity and you will the brand new incidence away from thyroid cancer tumors utilizes precisely how municipalities try categorized with the big areas. Tsuda ainsi que al. 23 have split up the latest prefecture into nine portion, when you find yourself Ohira ainsi que al. enjoys appointed about three portion 24 , and Suzuki five twenty-five . It’s straightforward so you can calculate environmental rays and you may radioactivity membership and you may cancers circumstances having fun with Dining tables step 1 and you will 2 when you look at the Supplement as well because the listing offered on PBLS and FSS. The results try essentially the exact same. Although not, the new group regarding municipalities towards the numerous areas can get add more uncertainty on statistical study.
This discrepancy underlines the significance of exploring the dose-reaction relationship found in the latest FSS which have a focus on interior exposure
Hence, we analyze the dose-response relationship from a totally different point of view. These raw data sets contain large error bars for each municipality. Therefore, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) in the R statistical software 37 to perform the Poisson regression analysis of all 59 municipalities. We take into account the fact that some children assigned for the secondary examination did not get the examination, which amounts to 7 % for the PBLS and 18 % for the FSS. This fact is considered in the six-area analysis by using \(n <\rm<>>\) instead of n as shown in Table 2. In the actual calculation, we simply reduce the number of participants by multiplying \(n/n <\rm<>>\) to the number of participants while keeping the value of cancer cases integer for the GLM analysis. As for the amount of 131 I in soil, there are municipalities where no data are available, in which we use the average value of 131 I in the area they belong as listed in Table 2.
